Find the Probability of Success for Any Online Home Based Business Opportunity

There are about three big opportunities per lifetime. Like baseball, if you miss all three, you are out. Do you remember the last online homebased business opportunity you missed? Did you miss Microsoft? Did you miss Yahoo? Did you miss Google?

Couda, shouda, wouda

Why did you miss out? Was it lack of knowledge? Was it indecision? If it was lack of knowledge, you can forgive yourself. You can not know what you do not know. There was nothing you could do about it. If it was indecision, there was something you could have done.

Oportunity is the fruit of Convergence. Peter Drucker defines opportunity this way:

“Opportunity in the market place is because of a process of convergence of forces that were previously not together.”

The idea of forces coming together, converging, is stronger than the business itself. The essential forces Peter Drucker did not individually identify as converging will be enumerated and discussed in this article.

There are five essential forces that must be present for any successful online homebased business opportunity. This article will describe these five essential forces that must be in place for any online homebased business opportunity to be successful. These five essential forces apply to any online homebased business opportunity. They are universal, abstract, and independent of business type. They apply from academia to zymology.

A simple analytical method to evaluate these essential elements and arrive at a numerical figure of merit will be presented. The method is strong, impersonal, and reliable. You will arrive at a numerical rating for the relative strength for the Probability of Success (S) for any online homebased business opportunity you care to evaluate. Reducing the evaluation to a number between zero and 100 gives you a powerful, impartial method to evaluate or compare any online homebased business opportunity. This will remove emotion from the decision process.

Convergence of these five essential ingredients is absolutely essential for success. All five forces must be present simultaneously. In other words, they must all converge at the same point in time for the same business venture. They must all be in the right place at the right time to create a successful online homebased business opportunity.

These forces are the essence of all businesses, regardless of product. They are like the spokes in a wagon wheel. If one spoke is missing, the wheel breaks down. Each factor dramatically affects the success of any online homebased business opportunity.

Without the convergence of these five forces there is no online homebased business opportunity. If there is no convergence, there is nothing you can do to make the business a success. No amount of hard work and no amount of money will yield success.

Opportunity presents itself only when all these forces are in simultaneous alignment. One force is not considered more important than the others. The order in which they are presented is no indication of their relative values. They will be discussed in random order.

This method is not buried in concrete. Feel free to make your own assessments of relative importance. When you finally establish a value, stick with it. Be consistent so comparisons can be made between one online homebased business opportunity and another. For example, if you decide leadership has a maximum value of 2 or 5, stick with it on any online homebased business opportunity you wish to evaluate.

It will be convenient if the sum of the maximum values allowed always equals 100. In this case, Leadership has been arbitrarily assigned a maximum value of 2. All you need to do is decide if the leadership of your proposed online homebased business opportunity deserves a zero, 1, or 2.

1. Company (C ) (Maximum = 20)

Company Management (Maximum = 10)

Leadership (2)

Confidence or trust (2)

Experience (2)

Honesty (2)

Influence (2)

Company Financial Stability (Maximum = 10)

Assets (2)

Cash (2)

Credit Rating (2)

Visibility (2)

Technology (2)

Many start-up online homebased business opportunities do not have the financial assets to sustain their own growth. A viable online homebased business opportunity must have very deep pockets or be owned by a company with very deep pockets, preferably a parent company that has already gone through the growth cycle and has the funds to support the new growth.

2. ProDucts (D) (Maximum = 20)

Leading Edge Product Technology (Maximum = 5)


Proprietary (No other place to get it)


Product Quality (Maximum = 5)

Quality, like Reliability, must be built into the design and process. It cannot be “tested” or “worked” into the products.

Product Fills a Recognizable Need (Maximum = 5)

There should be a clear need for your product or service. If there is no need, there is no demand, and there is no opportunity. There may be very little demand for 78 rpm vinyl records.

Consumable (Maximum = 5)

If the product is not consumable, there is no additional market after the initial sales and there is no opportunity.

Trends (R) (Maximum = 20)

Demographic Trends (Maximum = 10)

As individuals, we can not create a demographic trend. We can only recognize it and take advantage of it. The “Baby Boomers” are the largest market in history. Starting immediately after WWII, 76 million babies were born during the period between1945 to 1964. When the first of these babies were born, a powerful demand for baby products materialized. Companies like Johnson & Johnson and Gerber’s made huge profits. As these babies started shaving, Gillette started making huge profits. As they learned to drive, the Ford Mustang was in demand. As these babies began to have babies, the Mini-Van became desirable. If your online homebased business opportunity is positioned in front of the Baby Boomers, assign Demographic Trends a maximum value.

Economic Trends (Maximum = 10)

Individuals do not create an economic trend. Individuals have no control over economic trends; however certain businesses are sensitive to economic trends. Real estate is sensitive to interest rates. In times of economic downtrends a low number would be assigned. Cosmetics, on the other hand, are virtually immune to economic downtrends and would be assigned a high number. People will give up eating to look good and feel good. If your online homebased business opportunity is immune to economic trends assign a high number.

Timing (T) (Maximum = 20)

You have no doubt heard the expression that in real estate the three most important factors are Location, Location, and Location. In an online homebased business opportunity, the mantra is Timing, Timing, and Timing.

If one force is more important than the others, perhaps timing is the most important element of success. Timing, like trends, is also beyond your control. Like trends, you can only recognize timing and take advantage of it. There is nothing you can do to improve timing. It is either there or it is not. If timing is present assign a high number based upon the following criteria.

A. Formulation Phase: (Maximum = 20)

This is the phase where research and development are just completed. Production and initial marketing efforts begin. This region is characterized by slow, deliberate growth. As an agricultural example, this is the time for planting. It is defined as the region of the growth curve where income from sales is less than $50 million per year.

This is the time to get into any business. It requires forethought and knowledge. It does not require speculation. It requires due diligence on your part to study the online homebased business opportunity and arrive at your estimate of the strength of the five essential force ingredients of a successful online business venture. If you identify that your online homebased business opportunity is in the formulation phase, assign timing a value of 20.

B. Critical Mass Point

he critical mass point is defined as sales of $50 million per year. This is the point which will determine ” When”. This is the point when your labors will begin to yield fruit at such a great rate you will be unable to contain them. From this point onward, the curve rises ever so steeply. This is the time to act quickly and decisively. If you are not on board at this time, your online homebased business opportunity will quickly leave you behind. If you identify that your online homebased business opportunity is at the critical point, assign timing a value of 20.

C. Momentum

Momentum is defined as sales greater than $50 million per year and increasing very rapidly. If you have exercised your desire, ability, and motivation, you have already become a participant before your online homebased business opportunity reaches momentum. You have exercised your choice and are now in position to enjoy the fruits of your labor. There is nothing you can do to stop the momentum which is now building beneath you. It is beyond your control. It is like a giant wave that carries you to the pinnacle of success. There may be some who grab onto an online homebased business opportunity as it speeds by them, but the exponential growth eventually decays exponentially as the wave crest rises higher and higher until the opportunity diminishes. For example, you could buy Microsoft stock now, but the big opportunity is already over and it will never come back again. If you find your online homebased business opportunity is just starting into momentum, assign timing a value closer to 20. If you find your online homebased business opportunity near the top of the curve, near stabilization (defined below), assign timing a number closer to one.

D. Stabilization

This is the area where the exponential growth has died out. Momentum has dissipated. Sales are good, but sales are not increasing exponentially. The business is mature, stable, and secure. The curve is relatively flat, and growth has slowed to a value similar to the development phase. The online homebased business opportunity has gone. It is passed. It is over. There is no online homebased business opportunity. If you find that your online homebased business opportunity is in stabilization, assign timing a value near zero and start looking for another online homebased business opportunity.

Compensation (K) (Maximum = 20)

Leverage (Maximum = 10)

If you trade time for money, you will never get ahead by investing one increment of your time for one increment of income. You will remain in the very treadmill you are trying to escape. You will get by, but you will never get ahead. If you want to get ahead, you must find a way to multiply your efforts. That is done by leveraging yourself. J. Paul Getty stated this clearly when he said:

“I had rather have one percent of a hundred people’s efforts than 100% of my own efforts”.

If you have no way to leverage yourself (e.g. fixed salary) assign leverage a number near zero. If you can leverage yourself, assign a number closer to 10.

Multiple ways to earn income (Maximum = 10)

Sales Profits (1)

When you can profit from your own sales efforts, assign a value of 1, otherwise zero.

Override (1)

If you receive override compensation on the efforts of others, assign a value of 1, otherwise zero.

Matching (5)

If you can receive matching compensation on the efforts of others, assign a full value of 5.

Residual (2)

If you can build your equity to the point that you have residual compensation from your previous efforts, assign a value of 2.

Perpetuity (1)

If your equity is yours to sell or will to your survivors, assign a value of 1, otherwise zero.

Define the Possibility for Success (P) as being totally dependent upon the sum of the five prime forces required for a successful business (above). Notice that it has nothing to do with you. The only thing you will do is evaluate each ingredient and assign it a strength value. This will depend upon the research you conduct to gain information about the five essentials for the particular online homebased business opportunity. Assign each one of the five ingredients a value from zero to 20 according to the instructions presented above. (Naturally, 20 is the ideal, strongest value.) You have determined all the values for C, D, R, T, and K.
Repeating, you have evaluated each force ingredient separately and arrived at your evaluation of its relative strength.

Add up all five of your separate evaluations.

P = C + D + R + T + K

For example, if all five ingredients are present in your online homebased business opportunity and each is individually evaluated as being 20, then:

P = 20 + 20 + 20 + 20 + 20

P = 100

Let us further define a Multiplier (M), as a figure of merit derived from your desire, motivation, and ability to succeed. Let M be limited to a number between zero and one with zero being the worst case and one being the best case. Note that this multiplier is entirely dependent upon you, not the online homebased business opportunity. Determine this multiplier number by self-evaluating your desire, ability, and motivation. Notice that the multiplier number does not depend on your time. Too many people say “I don’t have the time.” That means you are “too busy chopping wood to stop and sharpen the axe”. Successful people do not have time—they make time. Ideally, you want to rate yourself as a “1”, not a zero. But unto thine ownself be true.

Define Success (S) as:

S = M(P)

If you are a “one” and not a “zero”, and all five ingredients of your online homebased business opportunity are present at their full value, there is no gamble since:

S = 1(100)

S = 100

Having completed your “due diligence”, failure is no longer an option or possibility. The probability for success is 100 percent. Your success is assured. It is no longer a question of “If”. It is simply a question of “When”.

Get on board this online homebased business opportunity fast

Use this procedure one each online homebased business opportunity that you wish to evaluate and compare.

Emerging Technology Trends and Business Opportunities for Solution/Service Providers

The business landscape is changing due to rapid technology changes. Innovation, technology and product life cycles are getting shortened; business use cases and application scenarios are changing swiftly due to globalization and technology integration. Organizations need to be flexible to quickly adapt to these emerging trends and be nimble to respond to changing market dynamics.

Emerging technology trends such as Software Defined everything, Object Storage, Flash, Cloud, Converged Infrastructure, Bring Your Own Device (BYOD), Internet of Things, Big Data analytics etc. are becoming more and more relevant with the emergence of multiple data streams. These innovative trends are transformational and are likely to shape the future.

Trends and Opportunities:

1. Software defined everything

Software defined everything will result in true interoperability standards, forcing individual technology suppliers to abandon working in silos with proprietary standards. Service providers can only offer value if they have the capability to offer all the constituents of computing, storage and network.

Some of the opportunities for solution/service providers include:

• Software Defined Storage (SDS)
• Supporting software defined storage applications from leading storage vendors
• Support these SDS products to extend them to other platforms and make them feature rich, enable integration with other ecosystems etc.
• Building test strategy, tools and frameworks and various types of testing opportunities
• Software Defined Networking (SDN)
• Network orchestration and automation, manage and implement SDN in enterprise data center
• Professional services such as Network Function Virtualization (NFV) implementation consulting or SDN and NFV testing for telecom vendors

2. Flash

Flash technology will definitely show an uptick in the 3-5 year horizon. One has to stay invested in terms of money, time. There may not be much of immediate progress in Flash adoption by enterprises due to the prohibitive cost, stable legacy set up, evolving enterprise features. Hence, most enterprises are still in the experimental phase, but there are lots of business opportunities.

The below trends represent some of the opportunities for solution/service providers:

• Most flash players are start-ups and would like to keep core work in-house and outsource peripheral activities
• Immense product engineering opportunities will lie with the big industry players in the form of testing wherein they plan to move products from existing legacy to all flash based platforms
• Flash storage OEMs are consuming PCIe based cards, AHCI and NVMe interface and most of these solutions are targeted towards cloud service providers

3. Object storage

Enterprises are inspired by the Internet companies’ adoption of object storage. Demand for object storage is driven by big data challenges of storing and analyzing a huge amount of data to provide value to the business.

Factors driving growth of object storage

• amassed unstructured data
• ease of accessibility via HTTP and SMTP protocols and REST APIs
• growing trend of organizations building their private or hybrid clouds
• software-defined storage (SDS) approach

Some of the opportunities for solution/service providers include:

• Ongoing integration of newer versions of OpenStack swift with existing storage products
• Mergers and acquisitions happening in the object storage industry, which will result into new product acquisitions by large storage vendors. This opens up product integration opportunities for service providers

4. OpenStack

OpenStack is moving beyond the early adoption as more and more enterprises and service providers are moving towards its adoption. Telecom space will drive growth for OpenStack. Openstack is the main driver for NFV thus helping it to become a reality.

Some opportunities for solution/service providers include:

• Provide storage vendors to enable their storage for OpenStack
• Help enterprises setup their OpenStack cloud, offer professional services
• Large storage vendors are building platforms with OpenStack using proprietary underlying infrastructure. It opens up integration and automation opportunities

5. Server SAN

Server SAN is poised to disrupt traditional storage architectures over the next decade. It involves sharing and distributing storage across multiple nodes. It is an architecture that turns multiple direct-attached storage (DAS) devices into a pool of shared resources via a high-speed interconnection such as InfiniBand or Low-latency Ethernet.

Some of the Server SAN solutions include EMC ScaleIO, VMware’s VSAN, and Quantum StorNext. One needs to follow this trend and see which of the existing solution gains momentum and is likely to emerge as a front runner.


Businesses are implementing BYOD to save costs on software and hardware or to address the expectations of their mobile workforce. Provisioning of all of these devices is a Herculean task.

Some of the opportunities for solution and service providers include:

• Solution accelerators and automation frameworks in area of desktop virtualization, image management, Content collaboration and Bring Your Own PC solutions
• In mobile cloud era, the user is increasingly beginning to rely on endpoints, devices with very limited processing power, smaller screens, maybe no keyboard which makes manageability an area to explore.

7. Hyper/Converged Infrastructure

Massive improvements in processing power are driving converged infrastructure trend and reason for quicker adoption of it by data centers. All major infrastructure providers are moving towards the converged space. Many industry players are competing for significant market share in converged infrastructure space to uproot legacy installed base or protect own share of the market pie. It includes majors such as HP, EMC, IBM, Cisco, Dell, Microsoft, Intel, VMware, VCE and start-ups like Scale Computing, SimpliVity and Nutanix.

There are two trends emerging:

• Hyper-converged Infrastructure – One vendor builds an entire infrastructure by taking all the various pieces that make up a traditional infrastructure in the market today and put it in a box. It is entirely seamless.

• Converged infrastructure – Vendor takes the fundamental pieces of storage, network, compute and server virtualization, possibly from different companies, perhaps put a management layer on top of it to make the deployment and the management of those pieces easier and make them operate as a whole.

Opportunities for solution/service providers are in the area of consulting, design, implementation, and management services related to private and hybrid cloud deployments.

8. Internet of Things (IoT)

Other related terms for IoT used by industry giants are Industrial Internet by GE, Internet of Everything (IoE) by Cisco, and Smart Planet by IBM.

IoT is being driven by a huge increase in data volumes collected from various types of sensors deployed by business, and business benefits provided by the analysis of sensor data.

9. Big Data Analytics

There will be competition to develop optimized cloud platforms which can leverage real-time data streams and/or massive data as enterprises look for varied data sources as well as applications that help them to get insightful information about the markets, customers, and products.

Opportunity for solution/service providers to offer Big Data implementation and analytics outsourcing services is huge. Some of the opportunities include:

• Professional services related to big data like data migration among platforms, maintenance etc.
• Opportunities such as Big Data technology implementation, including data collection, integration and designing of Big Data architecture etc.
• Log and sensor analytics are also gaining traction as very insightful information can be drawn using them. It opens up opportunity for data science specialists.

10. Cloud Computing

Cloud promises a growth on every front be it IaaS, SaaS, PaaS or customized security.

Businesses are adopting a cloud-based infrastructure due to the upsurge of Hybrid cloud architectures which include an amalgamation of private and public clouds

Platform as a Service (PaaS) solutions allows businesses to lower IT costs. It speeds up application development through more efficient testing and deployment.

Security policies need renewed attention with cloud-based applications are growing and taking over businesses. Hence there is increased demand for security solutions to bring new exemplars of security to the cloud.

Some of the opportunity areas for solution/service providers can be:

• PaaS enablement services, application re-engineering and migration services, assessment, advisory services etc.
• Consulting services requiring strategic direction and guidance in a broad range of areas which will help organizations to migrate critical systems and infrastructure to the cloud

The pace at which technology is driving the change is phenomenal. It is inspiring new business strategies across industries. Organizations are embracing technology to draw meaningful insights from their operations and leveraging it to explore growth and revenue opportunities.

The trend is turning into a demanding environment where companies are seeking more returns from their technology investments. This represents a unique opportunity for solution/service providers wherein they can help companies maximize their return on investment through their offerings.

In summary, solution/service providers must adapt to these emerging technologies and quickly grab immense business opportunities emerging out of it.

A Business Opportunity Is Knocking

Most people don’t know that they go through every day missing an opportunity. And you are probably one of those people. You may not know it, but a business opportunity is knocking on your door every single day. And all you have to do is pay attention to these and take advantage of them.

Many people go through their lives wishing they could own their own business and stop working for someone else, but think that the opportunity to own their own business and work on their own terms is just something that many people dream about. The truth is that this is not the case at all. The truth is that a business opportunity is knocking on everyone’s door almost every single day.

The question is then how to be able to see when a business opportunity is knocking. This is a very simple thing to do. All you have to do is look at yourself and the market around you. And if you can’t find anything there, never hesitate to take advantage of the Internet because it contains countless business opportunities for anyone.

You have countless opportunities on your own. For example, if you have a skill or hobby that could possibly get you quite a bit of money, all you have to do is sell your services or your product. This is simple enough. You can sell to friends and use your social network to advertise your new business. And when you begin to get some actual customers, you can get a business license and expand. That is the simplest way to take advantage of a business opportunity.

If you look around you, you can also find many opportunities. Maybe there is a need for a product or service in your area and people want it replaced. This is an opportunity that is just there waiting for you. All you have to do is take advantage of this need and start a business in this field. For some ideas, this is a very easy thing to do, but some will cost quite a bit more, depending on the business.

If you can’t find anything in your own skills or interests, or even your area, then never be afraid to look on the Internet. If you have an Internet connection, then a business opportunity is knocking every time you click. You can start your own business doing almost anything on the Internet. It all depends on what you can or want to do with your own business.

If you pay attention, you will discover that a business opportunity is knocking on your door every day. All you need to do is watch out for the best one and take advantage of it in order to make money. You can experience the benefits of being the owner of a successful business. And if you can’t find one around you, you can find one on the Internet. There are business opportunities that you can take advantage of everywhere if you look for them.